The American obligation risk increases global economy indetermination
The idea of coming from the market anticipates, American Lower House vetoed on May 31 federal obligation the upper limit raise 2.406 USD to 16.7 proposals of USD.This ballot outcome BE-all 236 Republican party congressmans all throw a negative vote and there are 82 objection, 97 in the democracy party congressman approving abstaining with 7.This ballot outcome suggests that American obligation risk problem has already outrun two fights for parties currently, and become the key place that solves an American government and of the congress main rift.Unless the federal government draws up a powerful deficit reduction project, otherwise congress would not easily loosen exaltation the government obligation upper limit.Therefore, this ballot outcome and American obligation future foreground should cause the deep concern of the international society.
The writer thinks that pay attention to many disadvantageous results that the U.S. Congress vote vetoes to raise a federal obligation upper limit possible creation, first, such as the American wealth grows a cover what the Na said especially, because the federal public finance has already got into "obligation issue pause period" on May 16, and will will all use up to borrow funds legal power on August 2, all run out a circumstance in all particular implementations under, the government will stop or postpone issuing of soldier's subsidy, social guarantee and medical treatment subsidy, obligation interest and unemployment insurance, even probably can not liquidate due obligation;Secondly, the Ao expects President horse and the United States allied keep chairman Bo2 Nan Ke to successively urge a congress, should take action as soon as possible, raise a legal obligation upper limit, with protection market of"full trust and the prestige in the United States", avoid resulting in "disaster economic result".
Sees from the history, U.S. Congress once for many times at the request of Ministry of Finance but raised a legal obligation upper limit, had never taken place to cause because the obligation upper limit limited materiality crisis, anticipating obligation upper limit affirmation will raise by August, but of the , congress and governments of two parties concerning reduction deficit and obligation level and how cut down an etc. problem, or became the indetermination that current global economy recovers factor.
The current logjam lies in, Republican party insists only just agreeing to raise an obligation upper limit under the sistuation that the president promises solution deficit problem.In April, this year, Ao Ba Ma declares cut down the plan of 4 USD budget deficit for the coming 12 yearses, mainly is pass to cut expenditure and collect tax to the rich man exaltation to carry out, Republican party then hopes to enlarge expenditure to cut range, don't raise a tax negative to cut down a deficit.But the circumstance of reality disallows the federal government large-scale reduction deficit, on the other hand is still very weak at present because of American economy recovery foundation and is factors, such as European obligation crisis and Japanese heavy earthquake...etc. on the other hand receive for global economy recovery last 1 F shadow.More important BE, the United States will welcome presidential election in 2012, if carry out a large-scale reduction deficit now plan, the objection certanly will encounter to many voteses, in the meantime return may push into American economy again decadent edge, obviously this disadvantage is at the Ao serving another term of Ba Ma.From see currently, the finance in the red problem of the United States not is in the deceleration but is BE worsenning.
In fact, the American obligation risk has already caused the extensive concern of the market before this votes.The standard Pu Er once declared on April 18 the long-term sovereignty reputation is the United States foreground outlook from adjusted under the "stability" for"negative", the American budget deficit was huge and two parties probably can not cut down a deficit to reach a consensus etc. factor is the main reason that makes this bottom adjusted.
In writer's eyes, though the United States faces an obligation risk problem currently, conduct and actions have the large economy of competition ability most , the national debt of American issue is stillthought to is one of the most safe financial properties and plus USD to hold in the special position in the international currency system, international hot money and all countries of a huge sum of foreign exchange storage, in addition to continuing to purchase American national debt, seem to have no better, greatly consider of investment outlet.Therefore, the United States gets bogged down in the possibility of obligation crisis in the short run not big.But from medium long term to see, if the investor loses confidence to the American national debt and USD, may is large-scale to abandon American national debt.Therefore, the economy recovery progress is a key towards dissolving American obligation risk.If economy keep on stability recovery, the American finance in the red hoped to lower, the market would resume the confidence to USD property.But if the economic growth is again blocked and even gets bogged down in a decline, the American explosion obligation crisis won't be able to avoid.
Moreover, because of 2011 there are around 3 national debts in the United States expire, in other words, the Ministry of Finance will re- publish 3 USD national debts, then can carry out the normal operation of public finance receipt and expenditure.Once 3 USD national debts expires and originally holds whether will continue to hold these bonds, this is mainly decided by the trend and bond rate of return of USD.If USD keep on flat, USD national debt will probably appear to flow to clap a phenomenon, or rate of return significantly ascension, beautiful at this time unite to keep may re- get involved, continue to become American national debt of importance purchase, don't expel beautiful allied keep probably and promote third amount of round to turn relaxed policy may.
The above-mentioned analysis suggests that American obligation problem to future the American economy recovery and monetary policy varieties will produce farsighted influence, and increased it to the indetermination that global economy recovers, the American obligation problem might also influence global economy and financial market currently the biggest long-term system risk.
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